What does money think?

24 prediction markets on the questions this site measures, each read as the chance its traders' prices imply.

Traders' prices, read as the chance they imply. Not Datum's forecast and not advice.

Every price is from Polymarket — offshore, closed to UK bettors. Its own statement, read 2026-09-28. A market is chosen when it asks one of the five questions below and at least $50k has been traded on it; where one question is asked about several subjects, the busiest stands for the rest.

Who will lead?

Which lab's model will top a ranking on a given day.

Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

$125k traded · ends 1 Dec

Settles on arena.ai — one leaderboard's ranking, not the Board

  • Xiaomi56%
  • Alibaba33%
  • Z.ai6%
  • Tencent5%
  • Moonshot2%
  • Baidu1%
  • MiniMax1%

What ships next?

When the next model from a lab will be released.

GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...?

$167k traded · ends 1 Dec

  • November 141%
  • November 152%
  • November 1612%
  • November 1712%
  • November 184%
  • November 1932%
  • November 202%
  • November 21<1%

Watched since 11 Nov; the week's move shows from 18 Nov.

When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?

$155k traded · ends 1 Feb 2027

  • November 9–November 153%
  • November 16–November 2253%
  • November 23–November 2917%
  • November 30–December 614%
  • December 7–December 131%
  • December 14–December 204%
  • December 21–December 27<1%
  • December 28–January 3<1%

Watched since 11 Nov; the week's move shows from 18 Nov.

What will AI do?

Scores, thresholds and results that have not happened yet.

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

$370k traded · ends 1 Jan 2027

Settles on lmarena.ai — one leaderboard's ranking, not the Board

  • 1470+6%
  • 1480+7%
  • 1490+7%
  • 1495+8%
  • 1500+7%
  • 1510+5%
Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?

$263k traded · ends 1 Jul 2027

Settles on arena.ai — one leaderboard's ranking, not the Board

  • 1500+75%
  • 1510+53%
  • 1520+53%
  • 1530+21%
  • 1540+12%

Watched since 13 Nov; the week's move shows from 20 Nov.

What will the rules be?

Laws, moratoria and commitments, and whether they arrive.

What are the labs worth?

Valuations, listings and the price of the hardware.

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$7.8m traded · ends 5 Jan 2027 · 1 similar market not shown

Settles on fe.secondmarket.com

  • ↑$5.0T2%
  • ↑$4.0T2%
  • ↑$3.0T7%
  • ↑$2.5T9%
  • ↑$2.25T10%
  • ↑$2.0T24%
  • ↑$1.75T44%
  • ↑$1.5T79%
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

$6.6m traded · ends 1 Jan 2028 · 6 similar markets not shown

  • <$1.25T25%
  • $1.25–$1.5T45%
  • $1.5–$1.75T15%
  • $1.75–$2.0T9%
  • $2.0–$2.25T3%
  • $2.25–$2.5T<1%
  • $2.5–$2.75T<1%
  • $2.75–$3.0T<1%
OpenAI IPO by...?

$3.1m traded · ends 1 Jul 2027

  • December 31, 20261%
  • March 31, 202722%
  • June 30, 202746%
In which month will Anthropic IPO?

$626k traded · ends 1 Jan 2028

  • November 202697%
  • December 20261%
  • January 2027<1%
  • February 2027<1%
  • March 2027<1%
  • April 2027<1%
  • May 2027<1%
  • June 2027<1%
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?

$489k traded · ends 1 Jan 2028

  • <$1.25T4%
  • $1.25–$1.50T39%
  • $1.50–$1.75T55%
  • $1.75–$2.00T3%
  • $2.00–$2.25T<1%
  • $2.25–$2.50T<1%
  • $2.50T+<1%
  • No IPO by December 31, 2027<1%

Watched since 12 Nov; the week's move shows from 19 Nov.

Settled in the last 30 days

How to read it

A price of 48¢ on a contract that pays $1 if something happens is read as a 48% chance that it will. That is all these numbers are: what people with money on the question are paying right now. Markets are thin on some of these questions and the people trading them are not a random sample of anyone, so a price is evidence about the question, not the answer to it.

Where a market asks the same question at several thresholds — a release by each of several dates, a valuation above each of several sizes — its rows are in threshold order, and each is the chance of that threshold, not a share of one total. Elsewhere the rows are in order of probability and, in a one-winner market, sum to about 100%.

The week's move is in percentage points. We record a price only when it moves by half a point or more, or once a day if it does not, and the market is checked on every pipeline pass.